Insights

We regularly publish our assessments of the current situation in the global financial markets, detailed analyses of our investment strategies and technical articles on machine learning in quantitative asset management.

Filter by:

Capital markets are beginning to trade the "new normality" and can obviously gain something from it

2514992400 04/21/2020 - Dr. Peter Oertmann

Market Insights

The capital markets generally look very far into the future without emotions. Otherwise - in view of the daily abundance of news about the human tragedy of the corona pandemic and the consistently very negative forecasts for the global economy - the relative stability on the stock markets or even the positive development of prices over the past two weeks could not be explained.

In our Market Insight of March 30, we had worked out that, for the time being, risk appetite on the capital market and thus demand for risky investments will be mainly influenced by the extent to which the global community and the relevant institutions are able, firstly, to manage the dynamics of the corona infection curve, secondly, the solvency of companies in this phase of widespread economic shut-down, and thirdly, the functionality of the markets.

The belief in the “U” prevails - but with a critical view on the number of new infections

2510154000 06/16/2020 - Dr. Peter Oertmann

Market Insights

The strong rally on the stock markets in recent weeks has surprised many market participants. The global stock market index MSCI World is now only about 8 % below its value at the beginning of the year. While the bad news about the economic development as a result of the global restrictions to contain the Covid-19 virus became more and more concentrated and economic expectations became increasingly gloomy, the investors bought stocks on a considerable scale. Commentators are not seldomly recognizing a decoupling of the stock markets from the real economy and are expressing considerable doubt that investors are "correctly" pricing in the current and future effects of the pandemic.

The constructive mood on the capital market is solidifying - investors are focusing on resilience and technology

2507043600 07/22/2020 - Dr. Peter Oertmann

Market Insights

The midterm economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic still cannot be estimated. Clearly, the current episode will have a profound impact on the economy and will bring people's lives into a new normality. What exactly this new normality will then look like is also not yet clear. The global infection situation, especially in the United States of America and some converging countries, is a strong signal that the spread of the virus is far from under control. Add to this the developments in China and Hong Kong, the rapidly growing political division among the American population, the ever-recurring trade conflict between the USA and China, and a heterogeneous Europe that is constantly struggling to find common ground. None of this contributes to the stabilization of perspectives. All in all, the current way of thinking and acting of investors is characterized by enormous uncertainties.

Some confidence is sprouting because the big institutions act courageously, and medicine achieves top performance

2516893200 03/30/2020 - Dr. Peter Oertmann

Market Insights

These days, our thoughts and conversations almost exclusively revolve around the immediate impact of the corona pandemic on our personal lives, on society and on our future after the crisis. The human tragedy of the pandemic is bitterly brought home to us by the various platforms and the daily stream of news on all conceivable channels. The economic consequences are immediately felt due to the serious measures that have been taken in many countries to achieve effective social distancing.